Category Archives: Economics

OTHER THAN THAT, HOW DID YOU LIKE THE BOOK?

OTHER THAN THAT, HOW DID YOU LIKE THE BOOK? Nassim Nicholas Taleb has a new book out which follows up on his earlier books, FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS and THE BLACK SWAN. Since I have posted on them so often, it’s … Continue reading

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HOW TO RIG STATISTICAL EXPERIMENTS.

HOW TO RIG STATISTICAL EXPERIMENTS. Christopher Shea had an article in the December Atlantic about a psychologist who showed how psychologists can (and some do) rig the results of their experiments to make them publishable. Uri Simonsohn, with three colleagues, … Continue reading

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HOW THE MAPLE SYRUP WAS STOLEN.

HOW THE MAPLE SYRUP WAS STOLEN. I posted here and here about how the theft of some 15,000 barrels of maple syrup reminded me of other crimes—of the theft of a cast iron building or the burning down of a … Continue reading

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A SAFE PREDICTION ABOUT THE CONCLUSION OF THE CLIFF NEGOTIATIONS—AND OTHER NEGOTIATIONS (COMMENT).

A SAFE PREDICTION ABOUT THE CONCLUSION OF THE CLIFF NEGOTIATIONS—AND OTHER NEGOTIATIONS (COMMENT). Dick Weisfelder also points out in his comment that both President Obama and Speaker Boehner have the problem that the public expects “hard positional bargaining”. Generally, in … Continue reading

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POSITIONAL BARGAINING AND THE FIRST REALISTIC OFFER (COMMENT).

POSITIONAL BARGAINING AND THE FIRST REALISTIC OFFER (COMMENT). The typical example of positional bargaining is haggling over the price of an object for sale. Another example would be the settlement amount in an automobile accident law suit. There is only … Continue reading

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NEGOTIATING BY BEING TRUTHFUL ABOUT YOUR INTERESTS (COMMENT).

NEGOTIATING BY BEING TRUTHFUL ABOUT YOUR INTERESTS (COMMENT). I posted here about the negotiating precept that it is disadvantageous to make the first realistic offer. Nick commented that the precept assumed positional bargaining rather than interest-based bargaining. I didn’t have … Continue reading

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THE HISTORY OF @.

THE HISTORY OF @. I posted here about the names for @ in different languages (for example, in Greek, it’s a “duck”). William Allman had an article in the September Smithsonian about the history of @. The first documented use … Continue reading

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DON’T MAKE THE FIRST REALISTIC OFFER.

DON’T MAKE THE FIRST REALISTIC OFFER. Back at an earlier American fiscal cliff—in 2011—I compared the negotiations to a chicken game. Dick Weisfelder pointed out here that real life negotiations are more complex than the simple chicken game model; the … Continue reading

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WHY PEOPLE WITH GRAY HAIR MAKE BETTER PREDICTIONS.

WHY PEOPLE WITH GRAY HAIR MAKE BETTER PREDICTIONS. Nassim Nicholas Taleb says that he thinks older investors and traders are more likely to be good at what they do. One reason is that they have seen more rare events in … Continue reading

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WHY POKER PLAYERS AND SPORTS FANS MAKE BETTER PREDICTIONS.

WHY POKER PLAYERS AND SPORTS FANS MAKE BETTER PREDICTIONS. Nate Silver thinks that the more experience we have with low-probabilty events, the easier it is to appreciate that low-probability events can occur. He says that he has an advantage in … Continue reading

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