A 25% CHANCE OF A EURO DEFAULT? In the Financial Times for January 27, Gillian Tett had the kind of article that I would like to see more of. She apparently talked to a number of senior bankers in Davos Switzerland for the big meeting and asked for their probability estimates for the breakup of the euro. The estimates are in the 20% to 25% range. The chance of the eurozone “muddling through” is thought to be about 70%. Kids, when I posted here almost two years ago about the possibility of the euro being threatened, the idea was startling enough to me that I reminded you (and myself) that we had had euros in our wallets.
Categories
Archives
Recent Comments
- Gary Nuetzel on THE OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE STARTS ITS 32ND SEASON. (COMMENT).
- Francesca on EATING PEAS WITH A KNIFE.
- avon wilsmore on CHEATING IN CHAMPIONSHIP BRIDGE.
- Anonymous on THE LANGUAGE WEIRDNESS INDEX.
- James Friscia on THE SECOND OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE.
- Ken Babcock on THE SECOND OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE.
- Lickity Splitfingers on THE SECOND OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE.
- Ken Babcock on THE OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE STARTS ITS 32ND SEASON. (COMMENT).
- David Quemere on THE OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE STARTS ITS 32ND SEASON. (COMMENT).
- Nicholas Schaefer on THE SECOND OLDEST FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE.
Meta
The fact that this has gone on for so long is pretty perplexing.
The Economist is referring back to articles it published two years ago about how something drastic and bold had to be done right away to prevent disaster, and that things would only get harder.
At least they are using probabilities. I remember that when the question of whether WMDs were in Iraq, the intelligence presented it to the White House as a “slam dunk”. Seems a little imprecise.