IS THERE A RECESSION? WILL THERE BE A RECESSION?

IS THERE A RECESSION? WILL THERE BE A RECESSION? Kids, I think it’s a good idea, just to make it more interesting, to keep making your own predictions (guesses) about what is going to happen in the economy. (I know we don’t know enough to really make a prediction, but that doesn’t stop people from making predictions at sporting events). The early estimates for GDP in the US showed that the GDP for the second quarter of 2008 grew at an annual rate of about 2%. The lag in determining final GDP numbers means that it is conceivable that there was actually a decline and the first quarter of a recession may have already begun. I heard an economist on Bloomberg radio today saying that it is expected, however, that the GDP figure will be revised up, not down. Nevertheless, the economist predicted a GDP drop in the third quarter. Although the real estate and financial markets are disasters, the rest of the economy, especially the export sector, is doing well. (Forty years ago, when I was studying economics, the export sector was less than 4% of the US economy and was always ignored). You can keep your prediction to yourself, and I will force myself to make a prediction in a couple days.