WILL POPULATION GROWTH CONTINUE?

WILL POPULATION GROWTH CONTINUE? Niall Ferguson says, in his article praising Malthus, “I wish I could have a free lunch for every time I’ve heard someone declare: ‘Malthus was wrong.’” In fact, Malthusian predictions have had a poor track record. Malthusian models have had enduring success. Ferguson uses his Malthusian model to argue that world population growth will lead to food shortages. Commenters On Ferguson’s article here and here point out that population is declining in some of the most economically developed parts of the world. As Tim Worstall puts it in the post linked above, “Longer life spans, decreasing child mortality, the education of women and the existence of alternatives, all these things that wealth buys, lead to a reduction in fertility rates.” One set of economic models shows overall population as being smaller in 2100 than it is today because of increased affluence.