ONE WALK EQUALS TWO OR THREE STRIKE OUTS.

ONE WALK EQUALS TWO OR THREE STRIKE OUTS. Marc Normandin wrote in Baseball Prospectus (on July 3 if you have an account): “…if you can explain to me why Nick Blackburn still has a 3.10 ERA, then I’m all ears. Blackburn doesn’t walk very many hitters—just 2.2 BB/9 on the year—but he also rarely misses bats. He’s more than one walk per nine [innings] under the average walk rate, but three strikeouts per nine [innings] under the average.” Let me try an explanation. Many baseball analysts underrate the importance of walk rate as compared to strike out rate, although they value the importance of BABIP (“Batting Average on Balls in Play”). In terms of on base percentage, three fewer strike outs per nine innings are roughly equivalent to one less walk per nine innings. The reason is that if batters get a hit with every three balls in play, then three fewer strike outs leads to one more hit and one more man on base–which is what the one additional walk results in. Of course, some of those hits are for extra bases, which is why I suggest the ratio of two to one for slugging percentage when you are doing this in your head. In the case of Blackburn, the Twins have a defense which gives up only about .9 hits per three fewer strike outs, and Blackburn’s is more than one walk per nine under the average walk rate, so his good results are plausible.