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Category Archives: Science
COLLECTING INFORMATION WITHOUT A RANDOMIZED TRIAL.
COLLECTING INFORMATION WITHOUT A RANDOMIZED TRIAL. I quoted yesterday a doctor’s statement that: “The only way to verify the hypothesis that skin rash predicts the benefit of cetuximab [Erbitux] is a randomized trial….” Another way to learn more about the … Continue reading
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EXPERIMENTING WITH HUMANS.
EXPERIMENTING WITH HUMANS. This article is about a report in Lancet Oncology about a randomized study which compared treatment of patients with non-small cell lung cancer with Erbitux and chemotherapy. The control group received only chemotherapy. The study found that … Continue reading
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GIVING THANKS THAT WE ARE HERE.
GIVING THANKS THAT WE ARE HERE. I posted here on Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s observation that compared the probability of your being born to a speck of dust beside a planet a billion times bigger than the earth. We are all … Continue reading
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EVIDENCE FROM BEFORE THE BIG BANG.
EVIDENCE FROM BEFORE THE BIG BANG. I began this blog four years ago with a post about how the background radiation from the Big Bang still shows up in the static on our radios. Now, as reported here, Sir Roger … Continue reading
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CONFIDENCE PERSUADES—AND SO DOES OVERCONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENCE PERSUADES—AND SO DOES OVERCONFIDENCE. The Dunning-Kruger effect is troubling because it shows that confident people may well be incompetent. Worse, confidence is a great persuader. Lecturers on trial advocacy will point out the importance in a trial of an … Continue reading
EXPERTS PREDICTING WHERE THERE ARE A THOUSAND VARIABLES.
EXPERTS PREDICTING WHERE THERE ARE A THOUSAND VARIABLES. I have posted, for example here, on Philip Tetlock’s studies of expert predictions. They don’t do better than anybody else. Tetlock urges that forecasts by experts be made in testable forms and … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Politics, Science
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OVERCONFIDENCE AMONG THE EXPERTS.
OVERCONFIDENCE AMONG THE EXPERTS. Experts can also be overconfident, and it seems to me that this is a different issue from being to clueless to realize that one is bad at something (the Dunning-Kruger effect). The wikipedia article I linked … Continue reading
THE DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT.
THE DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT. Nick recommended that I post on the “Dunning-Kruger effect.” I had not heard the phrase before, but when I read this wikipedia article, I recognized the behavior immediately. It’s nice to see that the effect has not … Continue reading
HOW LONG IS THE COAST OF BRITAIN?
HOW LONG IS THE COAST OF BRITAIN? I learned from an obituary for Benoit Mandelbrot that one of the important mathematical papers of the last century was entitled “How Long is the Coast of Britain?” Mandelbrot’s article was an early … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Science
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THE KOCH SNOWFLAKE—WHAT A FRACTAL LOOKS LIKE.
THE KOCH SNOWFLAKE—WHAT A FRACTAL LOOKS LIKE. This wikipedia article shows what a fractal looks like. A fractal results from the repeated iteration of a kind of mathematical function. The article shows in animation the first seven iterations of the … Continue reading
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