Category Archives: Economics

KEYNES AND HAYEK RAP—PART 2.

Posted on May 9, 2011 by Philip

KEYNES AND HAYEK RAP—PART 2. I posted here about the Keynes-Hayek rap which commented on the financial crisis. Now there is a sequel. I have to say that I think of Keynes and Hayek as primarily addressing differ issues: Keynes, … Continue reading →

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USING PROBABILITIES IN INTELLIGENCE—FINDING BIN LADEN.

Posted on May 9, 2011 by Philip

USING PROBABILITIES IN INTELLIGENCE—FINDING BIN LADEN. I posted here three years ago arguing for using probabilities more in evaluating foreign intelligence decisions. This article by Bob Woodward about the process which led to the decision to raid the compound which … Continue reading →

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MORE THOUGHTS ON GRAIN AND HISTORY.

Posted on May 6, 2011 by Philip

MORE THOUGHTS ON GRAIN AND HISTORY. I found this article by Stephen Haber and Victor Menaldo which elaborates on their theories on the way that grain shaped history. One of their propositions is that: “The world’s first and most long-lived … Continue reading →

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DID GRAIN CREATE TRADE AND DEMOCRACY?

Posted on May 5, 2011 by Philip

DID GRAIN CREATE TRADE AND DEMOCRACY? Matthew Ridley had an article in the Wall Street Journal (April 30/ May 1) discussing a paper which proposes an explanation for why democracy has done better in grain-growing countries. The paper, by Stephen … Continue reading →

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SCHEDULING YOUR EFFORTS TO PERSUADE.

Posted on April 27, 2011 by Philip

SCHEDULING YOUR EFFORTS TO PERSUADE. There is anecdotal evidence that is consistent with the statistical study of parole board decisions. A salesman once told me that traditionally a salesman would schedule his most important sales call of the day for … Continue reading →

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IS REFUSING TO LOBBY UNPATRIOTIC?

Posted on April 6, 2011 by Philip

IS REFUSING TO LOBBY UNPATRIOTIC? Back in the day in Illinois, I learned that there were some bills introduced in the legislature that were referred to as “cowcatcher bills.” A cowcatcher bill was one that threatened the existence of an … Continue reading →

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CAT BONDS AND THE JAPANESE EARTHQUAKE

Posted on March 29, 2011 by Philip

CAT BONDS AND THE JAPANESE EARTHQUAKE. I posted here about catastrophe bonds and how the market for cat bonds took off after Hurricane Katrina. Hester Plumridge had an article in the Wall Street Journal (March 25) about the effect of … Continue reading →

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A DEFENSE OF THE “GAUSSIANS.”

Posted on March 28, 2011 by Philip

A DEFENSE OF THE “GAUSSIANS.” Nicholas Nassim Taleb is very critical of the “Gaussian” financial theorists who assume that a bell-shaped curve can be used to model financial markets. (A bell-shaped curve results from a “normal” probability distribution, sometimes referred … Continue reading →

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IMPROVING ON THE WISDOM OF CROWDS—FISH.

Posted on March 26, 2011 by Philip

IMPROVING ON THE WISDOM OF CROWDS—FISH. Although I found it interesting that day stock traders put in so much effort to talking to other traders, Jonah Lehrer (and the researchers at Northwestern that he cites) found something more interesting—a way … Continue reading →

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FINDING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS—ONE PERSON AT A TIME.

Posted on March 25, 2011 by Philip

FINDING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS—ONE PERSON AT A TIME. Jonah Lehrer reports here at his blog (The Frontal Cortex) and also in the Wall Street Journal (March 19-20) on a paper by scientists at Northwestern University which analyzed instant messages … Continue reading →

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