HOW DID THE ORIOLES DO IT LAST YEAR?

HOW DID THE ORIOLES DO IT LAST YEAR? Nick is a believer in the sabermetric argument that Earl Weaver was right and that, except in special circumstances, playing for one run is a mistake. I told Nick that I would be taking a position that challenged some sabermetric positions, and here we are. Last year, the Baltimore Orioles were amazingly successful. Baseball Prospectus 2013 quotes the 2012 edition, which had said before the season that “the Orioles trying to compete in the AL East was akin to storming Mount Olympus with a butter knife.” Despite expectations, the Orioles made the playoffs. What is relevant to the Earl Weaver/ Gene Mauch debate is that over the course of the year the Orioles scored only 5 more runs than their opponents, and the estimate made by the most common sabermetric method based on run differential for the year is that they should have won 82 games and lost 80. Instead they won 93 and lost 69—11 more wins. Baseball Prospectus 2013 points out that they were 29-9 in one run games and 16-2 in extra inning games. One explanation for their record is luck—even 162 games is a small sample. Another is brilliant managing by Buck Showalter. But another is that Baltimore’s strong bullpen gave Showalter the opportunity to hold small leads.