FREE THROW DEFENSE.

FREE THROW DEFENSE. Every so often when a team is having a bad day at the free throw line, there is a joking comment about the other team’s free throw defense. This would seem to be a random occurrence. I would have thought that the free throw shooting percentage for opposing teams would pretty much average out. I looked up the NBA stats for this year (here) and was surprised. Opposing teams are making 79.2% of their free throws against the unluckiest team (Minnesota) and only 73.7% of their free throws against the luckiest (Orlando). an over 5% difference. And the second place team (Houston) has opponents shooting free throws at a 78.4% clip while the second luckiest team (Oklahoma City) has opponents shooting a 73.7% rate, an almost 5% difference. The only explanation I can think of other than luck is that perhaps Minnesota fouls point guards (who generally shoot free throws better) and Orlando fouls big men. But I don’t really believe that explains things. This article by Kelly Dwyer from December 2009 found almost a 9% difference between top and bottom on a much smaller sample (earlier in the season). The unluckiest team at that time was Minnesota, so maybe it’s something in the water there. Dwyer said: “…it’s a pretty stupid stat to begin with, and (as you’d expect going in) there’s no real rhyme or reason behind why some teams “allow” better or worse percentages from the line.” I have to agree because I can’t think of a satisfactory explanation other than luck.