THE WISDOM THAT CONTESTED CONVENTIONS ARE BAD. I have argued that a contested convention could help a political party. Here is the opposite view in an article (link via realclearpolitics ) which reflects the assumption among the politically savvy that a contested convention would be a disaster. The article is headlined “The GOP’s Political Nightmare” and says that “[A contested convention] can make for very exciting television, but could pose difficulties for a party that wants to use its convention to showcase its nominee.” It points out that the Republicans do not have a strong party leader to force candidates to drop out in favor of the frontrunner. It also acknowledges that “the old schedule of primaries and caucuses was designed to winnow down the field.” Part of the perceived problem is that too high a percentage of the primaries now take place early, before February 5. Both parties do want an early nominee, and in doing so they have sought to strip states with late primaries of an effective vote. No wonder Michigan and Florida want to change things.
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Florida used to have its party primaries in September. As the Republicans climbed from unimportant to significant rivals, the September primary was often a significant burden for the majority party. The Republican minority tended to settle on a candidate early and not have a contested primary. The Democrats did not have time to heal wounds after a primary contest. The Democrats still controlled the legislature, but never changed the primary to an earlier date. And I think that Ford would have been better off with an earlier convention in 1976. With more time, Reagan would have probably gotten over his disappointment and campaigned for Ford. Of course, maybe if he won, Ford would have run in 1980, and Reagan might never have been president.