Pater Familias » Basketball

BASKETBALL ALL STARS—DOES DEFENSE MATTER?

Philip — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:01:51 +0000

BASKETBALL ALL STARS—DOES DEFENSE MATTER? I posted here five years ago asking how important defense is in basketball; one would think that it is equally as important as offense. Kevin Clark has an article in the Wall Street Journal (December 13) about the defense of the New York Knicks. In it, he gives defensive statistics for last year for some of the Knicks. So little are defensive statistics part of basketball coverage that I had not previously seen the statistic Clark uses: points per shot by the player the defensive player is guarding. Carmelo Anthony is one of the Knick stars, an all star for four of the last five years because of his scoring abilities. Anthony is often described as being a below average defensive player. Clark says that Anthony was ranked 306th in the NBA in the statistic (points per shot for player Anthony was guarding) out of players who had been in over 100 plays. For perspective, if you take the ten players who play the most on a team, you get 300 players. Of course, team defense matters and any one defensive statistic taken alone can be misleading, but still….

TWINS COMPETING WITH EACH OTHER.

Philip — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 01:44:14 +0000

TWINS COMPETING WITH EACH OTHER. I posted here on twins in sports and speculated that twins seem to have done better in basketball because it is a sport that you can practice one on one. Dick Weisfelder sent me this article about Andrew Reed and Will Reed, identical twins who are outstanding athletes at Amherst. Their success is attributed to the fact that they have always been fiercely competitive with each other. For example, Andrew went out for track so that his brother wouldn’t have bragging rights as a two-sport athlete. The article says: “[Their] ‘Anything you can do, I can do better’ mentality is the foundation of their relationship.” My brother Elmer and I were not fiercely competitive in sports. I think the reason is that we were not good athletes. For one of the Reeds to surpass his brother is an accomplishment. For one of us to be better than the other was no accomplishment at all.

DEFENSE MAKES FOR “UGLY GAMES.”

Philip — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 20:21:50 +0000

DEFENSE MAKES FOR “UGLY GAMES.” Another prediction that could have been made, based on the fact that the Butler-UConn game would feature lower shooting percentages and very good defense, was that a lot of critics would hate the game. Think of the low-scoring football games you’ve watched where the announcers have said that both teams were playing badly. Try to think of a time when a basketball announcer pointed out that a defender was guarding his opponent well. Sure enough, this article marvels that the announcers at halftime ripped the game, something extraordinary for any TV network, which will ordinarily encourage people to watch its programs. Greg Anthony: “the worst half of basketball I’ve ever seen in a national championship game.” Charles Barkley: “That was an awful half of college basketball.” Seth Davis: “This is a very bad showcase for a national championship game for college basketball.” Contrast these comments with the admiration for the plays made in the NBA All-Star game, where nobody is spoiling the aesthetics of the game by playing defense.

THE BEST FINAL FOUR PREDICTION.

Philip — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 20:20:14 +0000

THE BEST FINAL FOUR PREDICTION. It wasn’t a prediction, but the Wall Street Journal had an article before the NCAA national championship game that said a lot about how the game later turned out. The article pointed out that after the NCAA adopted the policy in 1997 of playing the Final Four games in stadiums rather than basketball arenas, the shooting percentages of the teams in the Final Four had declined by about four percentage points (for three point shots, from 36% to 32%; for all shots, 46% to 42%). It’s harder to see when shooting in a stadium because of the background. When Butler played UConn later, the shooting percentages were indeed much lower than in most college games. That both teams have excellent defenses also played a part in the low score of the game.

THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HOME TEAM ADVANTAGE.

Philip — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 19:16:39 +0000

THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HOME TEAM ADVANTAGE. I have long thought that television and instant replays would have improved refereeing because fans and sportswriters and league officials are able to review the calls. In fact, I have wondered how extreme the home field advantage must have been when the home team’s fans constituted most of the spectators. Apparently things were not much different from today. I posted here on reviews of SCORECASTING, which I have since bought. One finding of SCORECASTING is that the percentage of games won by the home teams in each of the major sporst has stayed fairly constant over time. (The figures are on page 112). Thus, major league baseball teams playing at home won 54.1% of their games from 1903-2009 and 53.9% over the last ten years of that period. Even with the advantage of batting last, the home field advantage is smallest in baseball. For NBA basketball, home teams won 62.7% of the time from 1946-2009 and 60.5% of the time over the last ten years. There are similar results for other sports. Only one development seems to have made a difference. A QuesTec camera system was installed in up to 11 major league ball parks for a period and was used by baseball officials to monitor umpire calling of balls and strikes. During this period, at QuesTec parks, the advantage that the home team had on ball and strike counts was changed and the advantage on balls and strikes swung to the visiting team.

FREE THROW DEFENSE.

Philip — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 17:10:24 +0000

FREE THROW DEFENSE. Every so often when a team is having a bad day at the free throw line, there is a joking comment about the other team’s free throw defense. This would seem to be a random occurrence. I would have thought that the free throw shooting percentage for opposing teams would pretty much average out. I looked up the NBA stats for this year (here) and was surprised. Opposing teams are making 79.2% of their free throws against the unluckiest team (Minnesota) and only 73.7% of their free throws against the luckiest (Orlando). an over 5% difference. And the second place team (Houston) has opponents shooting free throws at a 78.4% clip while the second luckiest team (Oklahoma City) has opponents shooting a 73.7% rate, an almost 5% difference. The only explanation I can think of other than luck is that perhaps Minnesota fouls point guards (who generally shoot free throws better) and Orlando fouls big men. But I don’t really believe that explains things. This article by Kelly Dwyer from December 2009 found almost a 9% difference between top and bottom on a much smaller sample (earlier in the season). The unluckiest team at that time was Minnesota, so maybe it’s something in the water there. Dwyer said: “…it’s a pretty stupid stat to begin with, and (as you’d expect going in) there’s no real rhyme or reason behind why some teams “allow” better or worse percentages from the line.” I have to agree because I can’t think of a satisfactory explanation other than luck.

THE NBA AND PROFESSIONAL WRESTLING.

Philip — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 18:07:17 +0000

THE NBA AND PROFESSIONAL WRESTLING. I have long been aware that the NBA uses some of the promotional devices of professional wrestling. Nevertheless, I was surprised when I watched the broadcasts of the Christmas basketball games from the New York Knicks and the Detroit Pistons. Both teams were proudly showing scenes from fights that their players had been involved in in the past—scenes I would have thought would be embarrassing. I suspect that in some ways the NBA is pleased that the best player in the league is wearing a villain’s hat this year.

ODD PLAYING FIELDS SHAPING ATHLETES.

Philip — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 20:46:37 +0000

ODD PLAYING FIELDS SHAPING ATHLETES. A couple examples of professional athletes being permanently affected by the playing conditions of their youth:

Greg Gross was said to have hit primarily to the opposite field because as a boy he played on a playground that was long and narrow; he hit primarily to the opposite field because he was a left-handed hitter and the field was laid out by the kids to accommodate the right-handed hitters.

Tommy Heinsohn, who was a great shooter, had a very flat shot. I had heard that he played in gym with a low ceiling as a boy. This excerpt from Google Books from THE RIVALRY: BILL RUSSELL, WILT CHAMBERLAIN and the GOLDEN AGE of BASKETBALL by John Taylor confirms the story. Heinsohn played in a gym which had not only a low ceiling, but a pipe running under the ceiling. A boy had to choose either to shoot under the pipe or over the pipe. Heinsohn chose to shoot under it.

“INEQUITY AVERSION”—DOES GUILT AFFECT FREE THROW SHOOTING?

Philip — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 01:59:05 +0000

“INEQUITY AVERSION”—DOES GUILT AFFECT FREE THROW SHOOTING? Nick sent me this link which led to this article about “inequity aversion.” The article discusses an empirical study which confirms “the hypothesis frequently put forth by Rasheed Wallace…that a player will often miss free throws after getting a foul that he does not deserve.” The empirical study showed that players made about 53% of their free throws after an obviously incorrect foul call (against average for NBA players of about 73%. The effect was stronger when the foul shooter’s team was ahead. The empirical study has support in this experiment by cognitive psychologists which measured neural responses in a simple game.

ENFORCING A 55 MPH LIMIT WHEN EVERY CAR IS GOING 75.

Philip — Fri, 28 May 2010 18:11:54 +0000

ENFORCING A 55 MPH LIMIT WHEN EVERY CAR IS GOING 75. I had been thinking about the previous post since I read the Custance article. I was not thinking about any particular game. Nevertheless, so that people who are not diehard fans can evaluate this, here is a typical article about Glenn Davis, who weighs 295 pounds, being concussed the other night. The writer describes Davis as “staggering concussed down the court, tilting harder and harder to his left, a boxer out on his feet,” and essentially takes what happened to Davis as an amusing example of “playoff basketball.” And here is a quote (from this article) about another call in that game: “When the speed limit is 55, and every single car goes 75, what’s the one guy who gets pulled over supposed to think? Is that justice, or an almost random reminder who’s in charge?” It’s a good metaphor for “playoff basketball” rules.

PLAYOFF HOCKEY AND PLAYOFF BASKETBALL.

Philip — Fri, 28 May 2010 14:06:45 +0000

PLAYOFF HOCKEY AND “PLAYOFF BASKETBALL.” The Sporting News had an article on May 24 by Craig Custance about how much hockey has improved in the last five years as a result of the determination to enforce the rules precisely during the regular season and the playoffs. Custance says: “And without a doubt the game is better. It’s faster,… the skill level is at an all-time high and postseason play better reflects that of the regular season.” Now if basketball could learn from the hockey experience. Announcers will comment “That’s playoff basketball” after a rough play, but nobody knows what playoff basketball rules are—except that it’s a lot rougher and the calls are more unpredictable. Hockey figured out the right way to improve refereeing. If the calls in the regular season are uniform, improving refereeing in the playoffs will be a lot easier.

REVIEWING THE PERFORMANCE OF UMPIRES.

Philip — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 00:37:25 +0000

REVIEWING THE PERFORMANCE OF UMPIRES. I take the controversy over umpiring as supporting my repeated argument that the reviews of umpires and referees should be made public. Umpires basically have jobs for life, while players and managers are scored on their performance every day, and they can be replaced by better performers. Last night, I was watching a broadcast of the Twins-White Sox game. A call on whether a ball in the corner was fair or foul went the Twins way so that there was no rancor on the part of the announcers when they chuckled that the first base umpire did not run down the line to get a better view. “He took ‘first base umpire’ literally and stayed at first base” was their reaction. It was refreshing to hear a comment about an umpire’s lack of hustle.