Pater Familias

A NEW EMPHASIS ON DEFENSE? I look at the Baseball Musings blog more than any other baseball blog. The blog reported recently on a conference at MIT on sports analytics which featured some very impressive speakers. The session described here featured Rob Neyer, John Dewan and Dan Duquette. I posted last week on the success that the Seattle Mariner had last year by emphasizing defense. John Dewan says that: “the Mariners, the Tigers and now the Red Sox are all improving their defenses to win more. John says the Red Sox will gain six to eight wins with their defensive improvements.” (Among other changes, the Red Sox have signed Mario Scutaro, whose defense I posted on last year.) Dewan also pointed out (and other speakers at the conference agreed) that with improved statistics we know a lot more about fielding than we did 15 years ago. I would add that other teams, including the White Sox and the Yankees, seem to be stressing defense this year.

THE SEATTLE MARINERS DEFENSE. Last year I posted here in early March on “The Importance of Mario Scutaro.” I pointed out how good the Toronto Blue Jay defense had been in 2008 and highlighted Mario Scutaro, their shortstop, who was an outstanding fielder who had finally gotten a regular job at the age of 32. Toronto had a good defense in 2009, anchored by Scutaro at shortstop, and Scutaro had a surprising breakthrough as a hitter, with an OPS of .788. But it was the Seattle Mariners who showed the importance of defense in 2009. Seattle’s new general manager, Jack Zduriencik, emphasized defense, and the new Baseball Prospectus shows, using four of the leading fielding metrics, that Seattle had the best defense in the majors. (That there are four different metrics indicates how controversial fielding statistics are.) It worked. Seattle was last in the American league in scoring runs by large margin, but compiled a won-lost record of 85-77 and won 24 more games than it had the previous year. (Seattle’s park favors the defense, but not by that much). This year, Seattle will have arguably the best defensive player in baseball at four positions: Franklin Guitterez in centerfield, Ichiro in right field, Jack Wilson at shortstop and Chone Figgins at third base.

A MONEYBALL TRADE IN RETROSPECT. Michael Lewis is a wonderful storyteller. One of the stories he tells in MONEYBALL is how Billy Beane hornswoggled Kenny Williams of the White Sox into a trade in which Beane got relief pitcher Chad Bradford and the White Sox got catcher Miguel Olivo. Lewis wrote of it as a sabermetrics versus scout trade. Bradford had astounding results in the minors, but had an unusual underhand delivery. Olivo had a throwing arm that would awe any scout. Lewis portrays the trade as a triumph for Beane—the 2010 BASEBALL PROSPECTUS refers to the idea that Williams was “…flayed in a best-seller for getting Miguel Olivo for Chad Bradford…..” I always thought that the trade showed how good both men were at evaluating players who were at a very early stage in their careers. Both Bradford and Olivo have gone on to good careers. I was pleased to see the 2010 BASEBALL PROSPECTUS has a footnote on the trade pointing out that Olivo is “a good bet to match Bradford in career value when all is said and done….—and really, what WAS the fuss about?”

PICKING BASEBALL PLAYERS WHO HAVE A “GOOD FACE.” MONEYBALL, Michael Lewis’s book about how Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics had applied sabermetrics principles to baseball, was published in 2003, so that there is now some perspective about the predictions in the book. (Lewis, a marvelous financial writer, has since written THE BLIND SIDE). MONEYBALL portrayed how Billy Beane’s statistical analyses often put him at odds with scouts. This wikipedia article reviews Beane’s judgments on players in 2002, especially amateur players drafted in 2002, and how they worked out. Beane’s best judgment was probably his enthusiasm for Kevin Youkilis, then in the minor leagues. Beane famously referred to him as the “Greek God of Walks.” Scouts tend to consider what a player looks like—his swing, pitching motion, his speed. One of the categories that scouts look for is a “good face.” This review has a quote from Kevin Kerrane’s DOLLAR SIGN ON THE MUSCLE, a book about baseball scouts: “‘The Good Face’ is a mystical quality that the scouts look for in baseball players and it’s based on pure personal feeling. ‘Some players have the good face, others don’t,’ one scout says.” As this wikipedia article says, Youkilis looked chubby and unathletic, and so he was selected 243rd in the 2002 draft. Sabermatricians like Billy Beane look at results. Both methods have had their successes. In the case of Youkilis, the sabermatricians were right. Youkilis is an all star.

SABERMETRICS COMES TO SOCCER. I have posted several times, including here, about how statistical analysis has changed how we look at baseball (People who study this are called sabermatricians; Bill James pioneered the study; MONEYBALL by Michael Lewis was a great book about this statistical revolution). The weekend Financial Times (November 21/22) had an article by Simon Kuper about how soccer is now being influenced by this kind of statistical analysis. Mike Forde of the Chelsea football club has been visiting with the Boston Red Sox and with Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics, the hero of MONEYBALL. English clubs have been buying data on the number of passes, tackles and distances run by individual players. Analyzing soccer is difficult. For example, there seems to be no connection between distance run by a player and performance or between tackles made and defensive performance. In a counterintuitive result, teams with who have possession for the majority of a game seem to do badly. (I wonder whether teams with a lead are inclined to clear the ball from their side of the field and make their opponents start over. If so, doing separate calculations for games with a leader and those that are tied would be helpful.) Soccer statisticians have succeeded in establishing relationships which translate performances between different leagues (baseball statisticians have developed similar translations). I would expect that basketball and American football will soon be able to learn from soccer.

INSTANT REPLAY IMMEDIATELY (COMMENT). I posted here on Jonah Keri’s suggestion that baseball get rid of all its umpires. Dylan commented on October 20 that baseball should have instant replay for calls other than balls and strikes. This column on ESPN called for baseball to install instant replay immediately, before the World Series began. The column reviews several critical errors that have occurred in the few postseason games since October 20. Tellingly, a critical call in last night’s World Series game was reversed because it fell within the narrow window where instant replay is permitted–whether a home run was a home run. The editorial (by Gene Wojciechowski) makes the point that instant replay would protect umpires. Good umpires won’t have to live with criticism for calls that have been corrected. Baseball should install instant replay tonight—or as soon as the approval process permits. As Nick commented, blown calls don’t make the game more interesting for fans.

CANDYLAND AND BASEBALL. There is a game in which random events toward the end of a game can have a major impact, and since for many it is the first game they play, it may shape their idea of what a good game is. Candyland is played by players drawing alternately from a pack of cards and moving their counters toward Candyland and victory, depending on what they draw. The cards usually call for a move of a few spaces, but random events are possible. If you draw the “Princess Lolly” card early in the game, you vault ahead a large number of spaces and take a commanding lead. At the end of a game, when you have almost won, if you draw the “Plumpy” card , you are moved back a large number of spaces, and your victory has turned into likely defeat. Taking Candyland as an analogy for baseball, in the late innings, the decisions of umpires are potential “Plumpy” cards for one team or another. The “Plumpy” card and the “Princess Lolly” card seem to add excitement to the game for the children who play Candyland, and it may be that the randomness introduced by the “human element” adds excitement to baseball for a number of people.