“YAKKITY YAKS”—HOW I FEEL ABOUT POLITICAL CORRECTNESS. Tyler Cowen criticizes eloquently the way that people speak about people on the autistic spectrum. He gives examples at the beginning of his article of well-meaning academics whose writings about autism reflect what he calls a “dehumanizing ideology.” However, strangely, I found it charming that Temple Grandin refers to people who are not on the spectrum as “yakkity yaks” (who apparently sit around the campfire socializing.) Kids, I am generally sympathetic to political correctness insofar as it calls attention to lack of courtesy and respect for others. It really comes down to etiquette. We all tend to say things which can be hurtful, and hurtful words are part of our language. Political correctness has a bad reputation because of the penalties which are inflicted by people who enjoy inflicting penalties. Politeness has traditionally been enforced by sanctions that are themselves polite—because on the whole that kind of sanction is effective.
Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category
“YAKKITY YAKS”—HOW I FEEL ABOUT POLITICAL CORRECTNESS.
Sunday, February 28th, 2010PREDICTION IS HARD.
Thursday, November 12th, 2009PREDICTION IS HARD. About a year ago, I posted here about FiveThirtyEight, a political website which extends sabermetric statistical analysis (that is, statistical analysis of baseball) to politics. The moving spirit of FiveThirtyEight is Nate Silver, whose PECOTA system is at the heart of Baseball Prospectus. This post from VegasWatch discusses how PECOTA had a bad year in 2009. Out of five different statistical systems for predicting the final standings of major league baseball teams, PECOTA had been the leader for the years 2005 to 2008. For 2009, it had the least success out of a larger group of 16 systems.
IMPRISONING YOUR CITIZENS.
Tuesday, November 10th, 2009IMPRISONING YOUR CITIZENS. It should be obvious, but bears repeating. A government that does not let its citizens leave the country or emigrate is an evil government. There aren’t many examples. Before 1989, the countries behind the Iron Curtain. Now, Cuba and North Korea.
A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPEAN GEOPOLITICS?
Thursday, November 5th, 2009A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPEAN GEOPOLITICS? Back in the 1980’s, I attended a seminar in which great importance was attached to Russian natural gas. The prediction was made that Russia’s enormous reserves of natural gas and Europe’s need for natural gas would give Russia increasing sway in Europe in the 21st century. Up to now that prediction has held true. This wikipedia article (albeit a controversial one) points out that the European Union imports nearly half of its natural gas and cites a paper which describes how “Russia is consolidating its grip on oil and gas in Europe.” This wikipedia article (albeit a controversial one) describes the effect of disputes between Ukraine and Russia. For example, in January 2009, a dispute “resulted in 18 European countries reporting major falls or cut-offs of their gas supplies from Russia transported through Ukraine.” Now, the Lex column in the Financial Times reported on November 2 that the glut in natural gas in the United States has caused liquefied natural gas shipments to be redirected to Europe with the consequence that the spot price for natural gas in Europe is now lower than the price established in long-term contracts with Gazprom, the Russian exporter of gas. This study done in May from Rice University discusses the possible role of shale gas in curbing Russia’s ability to organize an “energy weapon” against European consumers. If the United States now has enormous reserves of natural gas, the stranglehold that Russia has had on European natural gas, with the political power it has given Russia, will be reduced. Try to imagine Russia being nice to its neighbors because it needs them as customers.
A JOURNAL OF REPLICATED RESULTS.
Monday, October 19th, 2009A JOURNAL OF REPLICATED RESULTS. In the article by Robert Samuelson I posted on yesterday, he questions whether increased health expenditures have much effect on health. He says: “But the connections between being healthy and more health spending are loose. The health of most people reflects personal habits and luck.” I find this implausible, but maybe I am overly impressed by the differences between what I saw of health care in 1975 and in 2005. I posted here on an article by David Brown which pointed out that in 1975 the chances of dying in the days immediately after a heart attack was 27 percent, whereas today it’s about 6 percent. I don’t think that this improvement can be characterized as reflecting “personal habits and luck.” What is striking to me, however, is that the effect of health expenditures on longevity is an important issue. It also seems to me that, as with so many important issues, there are only a few scattered studies. I think that the reason for the scarcity of studies is that the first study in a policy area is easily published. Later studies don’t seem to be pathbreaking, and so they are harder to publish and don’t further careers. There is less incentive to do follow up studies so that larger samples can be developed and results verified. My brother Elmer used to argue that there should be a journal of negative results because failed experiments contribute to knowledge. As I posted on here, there are now several journals of negative results. I think there should be a journal (or journals) of replicated results to reward studies which follow on promising results.
CUTE CATS AND REVOLUTIONARY ACTIVITIES.
Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009CUTE CATS AND REVOLUTIONARY ACTIVITIES. Annalisa and Lee Bryant claim to be followers of web sites that show cute cats. I posted here about Lolcat, which is a web site devoted to cute cats and novel grammar. This article explains the “Cute Cat Theory of Internet Censorship, as propounded by Ethan Zuckerman, a senior researcher at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard Law School.” The theory is that “most people use the Internet to enjoy their lives, and among the ways people spread joy is to share pictures of cute cats.” It is hard for the Iranian government (or other governments) to shut down blogs to censor political messages when the blogs have become part of daily life. Zuckerman gives Kenya as another example. Kenya has the second largest number of bloggers in Africa, many of whom blog about rugby. Think of how much anger there would be in this country if an attempt were made to cut down on blogs devoted to cute cats and sports.
DO EXPERTS KNOW ANYTHING?
Tuesday, May 12th, 2009DO EXPERTS KNOW ANYTHING? There are three major parts to THE BLACK SWAN; Part 2 is entitled “We Just Can’t Predict.” Taleb is not just saying that economists can’t predict. In Part 2 Taleb discusses the work of Philip Tetlock, who asked some three hundred specialists in various fields, including politics, economics, and military, (about 25% were economists) to make predictions for about five years in the future. They did not do well. PhD’s did not do better than those with undergraduate degrees. Those with bigger reputations did worse than others. Here is an interview with Tetlock. The interviewer says that Tetlock collected some 82,000 forecasts and found that the predictions barely beat out a random forecast generator. In the interview, Tetlock cites what he says is a cliche: “Never assign a date and a number to the same prediction.”
THE DANEGELD.
Wednesday, March 18th, 2009THE DANEGELD. Although the concept of an offer that can’t be refused is now associated with my wife Mary Jane’s Italian ancestors, I can remind her that my Viking ancestors pioneered the concept over a thousand years ago. This wikipedia article describes the “Danegeld (’Danish tax’) … a tax raised to pay tribute to the Viking raiders to save a land from being ravaged. It was characteristic of royal policy in both England and Frankland during the ninth through eleventh centuries.
CARROTS AND STICKS.
Tuesday, March 17th, 2009CARROTS AND STICKS. An important Communist back in the eighties (some thought he would have had a shot at the number one position if he hadn’t had the unfortunate name of Romanov) said that capitalists didn’t understand incentives. They were always talking about carrots and not realizing that a stick is also an incentive.
THE KYRGYZSTAN AIR BASE.
Tuesday, March 17th, 2009THE KYRGYZSTAN AIR BASE. Economists and merchants think in terms of trading “goods.” But abstaining from doing harm can also be traded for goods. Hence, the offer that can’t be refused. Large areas of the world— whole countries, but also neighborhoods in the United States— are governed by gangs which sell “protection.” A trader can look not just for positive things that can be offered, but for things that can be taken away. A current example—an imperfect example because other issues, like “spheres of influence” are involved—is an air base in Kyrgyzstan that the United States has been using to supply troops in Afghanistan. This article in the Guardian tells how Russia has offered Kyrgyzstan a loan package of over $2 billion to eject the Americans from the base and gives the thinking that may underlie the offer: “Analysts say Moscow wants to use the base in Kyrgyzstan as a bargaining chip in a much wider strategic dialogue with the US – over the future of the US missile defence shield in Europe, for example, and Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine.”
