Category Archives: Economics

“VAPORIZING” OVER A BILLION DOLLARS.

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Philip

“VAPORIZING” OVER A BILLION DOLLARS. It’s now three months since the MF Global bankruptcy. I posted earlier that, as with the Lehman bankruptcy, it seemed to be amazingly hard to locate the assets. It seems that most Lehman assets were … Continue reading →

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GREECE’S ADVANTAGE IN THE CHICKEN GAME.

Posted on February 1, 2012 by Philip

GREECE’S ADVANTAGE IN THE CHICKEN GAME. One advantage that Greece has in the negotiations with respect to a possible Greek default is that Greece’s moves will not be required until after the deadline. The deadline for the funding from other … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Politics | 3 Comments

BANK PREPARATIONS FOR A EURO DEFAULT.

Posted on January 31, 2012 by Philip

BANK PREPARATIONS FOR A EURO DEFAULT. Gillian Tett says that banks are apparently making some secret contingency plans to deal with a euro breakup—plans that are kept secret just as the plans to deal with a U.S default were kept … Continue reading →

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HOW BANKS PREPARED FOR A U.S. DEFAULT.

Posted on January 31, 2012 by Philip

HOW BANKS PREPARED FOR A U.S. DEFAULT. Gillian Tett describes how large banks in the United States made preparations in 2001 for a possible United States technical default which might have resulted from the Congressional impasse over whether to raise … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, History | 2 Comments

MORE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES.

Posted on January 30, 2012 by Philip

MORE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES. I was of course pleased to see a report by a good journalist which expressed the opinions of informed professionals. The article gives a useful idea of the range of uncertainty … Continue reading →

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A 25 % CHANCE OF A EURO DEFAULT?

Posted on January 30, 2012 by Philip

A 25% CHANCE OF A EURO DEFAULT? In the Financial Times for January 27, Gillian Tett had the kind of article that I would like to see more of. She apparently talked to a number of senior bankers in Davos … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, History, Journalism | 1 Comment

A DECISION SCIENTIST USES A DECISION TREE.

Posted on January 22, 2012 by Philip

A DECISION SCIENTIST USES A DECISION TREE. Memory from forty years ago says that Howard Raiffa, one of the giants of decision science, once said in class that he had asked Kenneth Arrow, a future Nobel Prize winner, whether he … Continue reading →

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DECISION TREES FOR PATIENTS.

Posted on January 21, 2012 by Philip

DECISION TREES FOR PATIENTS. Laura Landro’s review describes how Doctors Groopman and Hartzband “examine a formula for rational decision-making often used in economics: Measure the probability of an outcome and place a numerical value on the outcome itself.” The probable … Continue reading →

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DECIDING WHAT KIND OF PATIENT YOU ARE.

Posted on January 20, 2012 by Philip

DECIDING WHAT KIND OF PATIENT YOU ARE. Jerome Groopman (an oncologist) and Pamela Hartzband (an endocrinologist) have written YOUR MEDICAL MIND, which analyzes the role of patient choices in medical decisions. (I have relied on this review by Daniel J. … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Science | 1 Comment

A VOTE FOR THE INVENTION OF AGRICULTURE BEING A GOOD THING.

Posted on January 18, 2012 by Philip

A VOTE FOR THE INVENTION OF AGRICULTURE BEING A GOOD THING. In her article, Elif Batumen raises the argument Jared Diamond makes that the invention of agriculture was “the worst mistake in the history of the human race”—responsible for “the … Continue reading →

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