I WISHED SOMEBODY WOULD WRITE A BOOK….In the post which I linked to yesterday, I expressed the hope that:” When we get comfortable with using probabilities to discuss policies, we can take advantage of the wisdom of crowds. And we will be reminded that often there are several future scenarios, each with a probability attached, not just: ‘certainly it’s black’ or ‘certainly it’s white’. ” I feel as if I had wished for a major research project and a book and that Tetlock’s new book fulfilled my wishes. In addition to demonstrating that probabilities could be used to make useful statements about future events, it showed the power of the wisdom of crowds. Probability statements can be aggregated. Angela Chen says: “Researchers divided the Good Judgment Project team into individuals competing alone and groups competing together. Teams were, on average, 23 percent more accurate in their predictions.”

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