MORE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES.

MORE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES. I was of course pleased to see a report by a good journalist which expressed the opinions of informed professionals. The article gives a useful idea of the range of uncertainty about what will happen with the euro. The same week, as this article in the Economist reports, the Federal Reserve Bank began publishing the predictions of all the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (the main policy making body of the Fed). The accompanying chart shows the great divergence of the 17 policymakers. For 2014, 5 of them think the appropriate federal funds rate will be greater or equal to 2%; 9 think it will be less than 1%. In the context of extremely low interest rates, the predictions reflect considerable uncertainty as to the course of the next three years.