DOES THE STRIKE ZONE CHANGE WITH THE PITCH COUNT?

DOES THE STRIKE ZONE CHANGE WITH THE PITCH COUNT? John Walsh has another study here in The Hardball Times (a very important site). The study is based on 200,000 pitchers to right-handed batters. He concludes that the strike zone is almost 50% larger when there is a 3-0 count (three balls and no strikes) than there is when there is an 0-2 count. The strike zone on a 3-0 count is about 15% bigger than average; the strike zone on an 0-2 count is about 20% smaller than average. One possible conclusion is that umpires are reluctant to make a call which has a direct effect on the game—a call which results in a base on balls or a strike out. Another suggestion is that the umpires subconsciously favor the underdog in the situation (The title of Walsh’s article is “The Compassionate Umpire.”) The comments suggest a lot of complications and other factors such as curve balls and batters swinging to “protect the plate.” One comment, by Joe Minnich, refers to the possibility that “the psychological principle of ‘omission bias’ works on umpires, too. Basically, people tend to think that omission of an action implies less responsibility for an outcome than commission of an act (e.g. ‘withholding the truth’ is better than ‘telling a lie’”).

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1 Response to DOES THE STRIKE ZONE CHANGE WITH THE PITCH COUNT?

  1. Nick says:

    I had heard 10% increase a few years ago, but this is pretty impressive and confirms visual evidence to me.

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