MONEYBALL COMES TO SOCCER. Simon Kuper had an article in the Financial Times (February 6) about how European soccer clubs are paying spending much less money to buy players than they had in recent years. He argues that clubs are learning from statistical studies which show that “Transfers rarely help teams.” He cites one study that between 1978 and 1997 expenditures on transfers explained only 16% of total variation in league position. (Kids, you will see that there are causation problems—are weaker teams forced to spend more to try to catch up?) The article quotes a Barcelona official who argues that there are problems with new players who have to adjust and cites a “One-second Rule”: If a player delays one second in deciding which player to pass to, that’s the difference between winning and losing. Familiarity with your teammates makes for quicker decisions.
Archive for February, 2010
MONEYBALL COMES TO SOCCER.
Sunday, February 28th, 2010“YAKKITY YAKS”—HOW I FEEL ABOUT POLITICAL CORRECTNESS.
Sunday, February 28th, 2010“YAKKITY YAKS”—HOW I FEEL ABOUT POLITICAL CORRECTNESS. Tyler Cowen criticizes eloquently the way that people speak about people on the autistic spectrum. He gives examples at the beginning of his article of well-meaning academics whose writings about autism reflect what he calls a “dehumanizing ideology.” However, strangely, I found it charming that Temple Grandin refers to people who are not on the spectrum as “yakkity yaks” (who apparently sit around the campfire socializing.) Kids, I am generally sympathetic to political correctness insofar as it calls attention to lack of courtesy and respect for others. It really comes down to etiquette. We all tend to say things which can be hurtful, and hurtful words are part of our language. Political correctness has a bad reputation because of the penalties which are inflicted by people who enjoy inflicting penalties. Politeness has traditionally been enforced by sanctions that are themselves polite—because on the whole that kind of sanction is effective.
THINGS I LEARNED ABOUT THE AUTISTIC SPECTRUM.
Saturday, February 27th, 2010THINGS I LEARNED ABOUT THE AUTISTIC SPECTRUM. Here are some things I learned from the articles I linked to yesterday: 1. Temple Grandin says that “The thing about being autistic is that you gradually get less and less autistic…because you keep learning, you keep learning how to behave.” 2. Temple Grandin compares this learning to acting: “It’s like being in a play; I’m always in a play.” Interestingly, Tyler Cowen cites a psychologist who says that “acting is a profession well-represented on the autistic spectrum.” 3. Temple Grandin thinks in pictures. Bari Weiss calls this “the defining characteristic of her mind.” 4. It is very important to recognize that there is a spectrum of autistic characteristics. 5. Tyler Cowen has a long list of cognitive skills—I counted ten of them in one paragraph—that people in the autistic spectrum are better in. 6. Cowen views “higher (and lower) education as teaching people to be more autistic in many of their basic cognitive skills.”
ACHIEVEMENTS BY PEOPLE ON THE AUTISTIC SPECTRUM.
Friday, February 26th, 2010ACHIEVEMENTS BY PEOPLE ON THE AUTISTIC SPECTRUM. This interview with Temple Grandin by Bari Weiss in the Wall Street Journal (February 20-21) begins with her speculation that it was somebody on the autistic spectrum who made the first stone spear. She adds that “without some autistic traits you wouldn’t even have a recording device” to use in the interview. Bari Weiss describes Temple Grandin as “easily the most famous autistic woman in the world.” Temple Grandin gives reasons for her claim: “People on the ’spectrum’ tend to be just as obsessed with things and the way things work as they are uninterested in social relationships. And, as Ms. Grandin observed, people interested in things make important advancements—particularly in engineering, science and technology.” Tyler Cowen, the economist, has making similar arguments, including in this article. He says: “there is a lot more autism in higher education than most of us realize. It’s not just ’special needs’ students but also our valedictorians, our faculty members, and yes —sometimes —our administrators.” Cowen gives the powerful example of Vernon L. Smith, a winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, who “attributes his extreme focus, his attention to detail, and his scholarly persistence to his connections to the autism spectrum.”
THE SOLUTION TO “THE PHANTOM OF HEILBRONN” (SPOILER ALERT).
Thursday, February 25th, 2010THE SOLUTION TO “THE PHANTOM OF HEILBRONN” (SPOILER ALERT). I posted here about “The Phantom of Heilbrunn.” Here is a wikipedia article about the solution to the mystery: “In late March 2009, investigators came to the conclusion that the “Phantom” criminal did not exist, and the DNA recovered at the crime scenes had already been present on the cotton swabs used for collecting DNA samples.” The clues I referred to are all the bizarre aspects of the crimes with only a genetic connection among them. Annalisa noted how improbable it was that the Phantom of Heilbronn had worked with several accomplices without any of them betraying her.
“THE WOMAN WITHOUT A FACE”—SOLUTION TOMORROW.
Wednesday, February 24th, 2010“THE WOMAN WITHOUT A FACE”—SOLUTION TOMORROW. I had promised to post the solution to the mystery that I posted on here of “The Woman Without a Face.” I have waited because Annalisa asked for more time. We discussed the case last night. She had some good questions about the facts, but asked me for the answer. (Since a large number of police professionals worked on the case unsuccessfully for a number of years, it’s really an impossible challenge). I’ll post the solution tomorrow.
“HEADLESS BODY IN TOPLESS BAR” REVISITED.
Wednesday, February 24th, 2010“HEADLESS BODY IN TOPLESS BAR” REVISITED. The most famous headline in the newspaper of record in our house (the New York Post) was “HEADLESS BODY IN TOPLESS BAR.” The Post just had an update on the story. If you’re curious, the update recounts the original story and reports that the killer was denied parole this month for the third time in 27 years. The update points out that the decapitation was not necessarily the act of a madman. The killer was trying to remove evidence. He was concerned that the bullet in the head could lead to ballistics evidence against him. Note that this is consistent with the Bryan Caplan thesis that I mentioned yesterday, “that many seemingly insane people are not irrational, but merely have unusual preferences.”
A PSYCHIATRIST AND AN ECONOMIST LOOK AT GOLLUM.
Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010A PSYCHIATRIST AND AN ECONOMIST LOOK AT GOLLUM. Ilya Somin on the Volokh Conspiracy blog discusses here this analysis of Gollum’s mental health. The analysis points out that an internet search turned up more than 1300 sites discussing Gollum’s “mental illness.” The analysis begins: “Sméagol (Gollum) is a single, 587 year old, hobbit-like male of no fixed abode. He has presented with antisocial behaviour, increasing aggression, and preoccupation with the ‘one ring.’” The author of the analysis consulted 30 medical students and 25 of them diagnosed Gollum as schizophrenic. Nevertheless, the analysis casts doubt on that diagnosis because Gollum’s preoccupation with the ring is not delusional. The Ring has real power. The analysis concludes that Gollum exhibits seven of the nine criteria for schizoid personality disorder and that this is the most likely diagnosis. Ilya Somin comments, as a law and economics scholar, that: “If we assume that Gollum valued long life, power, and wealth above companionship, socializing, and conventional morality, his actions seem perfectly rational.” Somin suggests: “Maybe Gollum is an example of Bryan Caplan’s thesis [Caplan is also an economist] that many seemingly insane people are not irrational, but merely have unusual preferences.” I have to say that I never thought of Gollum as anything but rational, taking into account that he was subject to the consequences of being the ring bearer.
PROBLEMS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Monday, February 22nd, 2010PROBLEMS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FUND. Kids, I always find sports events more interesting if I know somebody who’s involved (just as with your soccer games). The same holds true for politics and economics. Your Uncle Tom (Tom Hockin) is involved with issues that are going to be on the front pages for months to come. He is now one of the 24 directors of the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, representing Canada and Ireland. Here is an article in the Wall Street Journal which describes some of the issues that the IMF is facing. The authors are Simon Johnson and Peter Boone. Simon Johnson was formerly the chief economist for the IMF so the article carries a lot of authority. The article is about the Greek debt crisis. Greece has a large public debt, and the markets evidence fear that Greece can’t repay it. The authors say: “Investors naturally flew from Greek debt—Greece’s debt yields rose, and its banking system verged near collapse as investors and savers ran from the country.” The following points from the article present some of the issues for the IMF:
1. “The International Monetary Fund is supposed to lend to countries in trouble, to cushion the blow of crisis and to offer a form of international circuit breaker when everything looks fragile.”
2. “‘Going to the IMF’” brings with it a great deal of stigma; just ask the Asian countries that had to borrow from the fund during their crises of the 1990s.”
3. Europeans think of the IMF as an “American-influenced institution.”
4. The head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has said that the IMF stands ready to help Greece. However, M. Strauss-Kahn is a “serious potential challenger” to President Sarkozy in future elections.
The stakes are high. The article says: “One possibility is to recognize that the current euro zone might not make sense.”
Think about that. The Euro is threatened by this crisis. In personal terms, kids, you have had euros in your wallets.
SOLDIERS COORDINATING THEIR MOVEMENTS.
Sunday, February 21st, 2010SOLDIERS COORDINATING THEIR MOVEMENTS. General S.L.A. Marshall was a military historian who studied the behavior of soldiers in combat. His most controversial finding is described in this wikipedia article: “Marshall claimed that of the World War II U.S. troops in actual combat, 75% never fired their personal weapons at the enemy for the purpose of killing, even though they were engaged in combat and under direct threat. (Later research has cast doubts on his methods, but research into killing ratios of other wars, including the U.S. Civil War, has supported this claim….)” Back in the day, I read about experimental studies by General Marshall of how long it took for a line of soldiers that had hit the ground under enemy fire to all get up at the same time and start moving forward (during the hour, there would be a series of attempts to coordinate by different small groups of soldiers). He worked out that it took about an hour. Since I read about the soldiers trying to coordinate, I have thought that getting an economy moving again presents an analogous problem. As a business owner, I want to be convinced that other business owners are taking action, so that I won’t be the only one hiring or making an investment.
