WHEN ECONOMISTS DIFFER—THE CHINESE CURRENCY.

WHEN ECONOMISTS DIFFER—THE CHINESE CURRENCY. One of the advantages of the approach of THE WISDOM OF CROWDS (by James Surowiecki) is that in looking for an average or consensus of experts it highlights the fact that the experts disagree. I posted here and elsewhere about the difficulties of predicting foreign exchange rates. In the February 5 Financial Times, Jagdish Bhagwati wrote that a magazine once asked over 60 economists at what level the Chinese currency should be set. Some wanted a float. Two very distinguished economists wanted no change. “And those who wanted revaluation fell into 11 groups ranging from 5 per cent revaluation to 40 per cent and above.”

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