DISCUSSING RECESSION IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES. About a year ago, I argued here that it would be useful to use probabilities to discuss foreign intelligence, just as we have over the last forty years gotten used to using probabilities in discussing the weather. Recession is an unfortunate possibility, but I am pleased that people are using probabilities to talk about it.
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- “A COMFORT BLANKET FOR THE SMUG”? (1)
- Nick: Further informing my perspective was that in the writings of classical Romans the middle-aged authors opined...
- ARE PEOPLE LESS VIOLENT? (COMMENT). (2)
- Dick Weisfelder: My prior comment was just in the context of sports. Whether or not from Pinker, I have seen the...
- erik: It seems doubtful that human nature has changed. The most likely explanation would be that modern culture gives...
- HOW BANKS PREPARED FOR A U.S. DEFAULT. (2)
- GREECE’S ADVANTAGE IN THE CHICKEN GAME. (2)
- Nick: That makes sense. It reminds me of the stories Pater Familias would tell me about how in Boston the person with...
- Dick Weisfelder: Greece seems to me to be playing a game that Karl Deutsch called “underdog.” While one...
- FOOTBALL PLAYERS DELIBERATELY CAUSING CONCUSSIONS? (3)
- Nick: It was my understanding that boxing gloves were to protect the puncher’s hands and not the...
- Dick Weisfelder: Remember the Roman arenas? Bare knuckled boxing? Such injuries were taken as natural and accepted in...
- Mary Jane Schaefer: This isn’t about football. Or even sportsmanship. Well, it is about sportsmanship. But what...
- A 25 % CHANCE OF A EURO DEFAULT? (1)
- Nick: The fact that this has gone on for so long is pretty perplexing. The Economist is referring back to articles it...
- DECIDING WHAT KIND OF PATIENT YOU ARE. (1)
- Dick Weisfelder: One can be very open to new technology, but also risk averse. The recent debates about how to...
- “A COMFORT BLANKET FOR THE SMUG”? (1)
Meta
Probablities have long been a key element embodied in the phrase “intelligence estimates.”
But not in the public discussion of intelligence.
The public generally manifests less interest in and knowledge about foreign and national security policy than any domestic issue area. The attentive public is small, exagerating the influence of agenda setting groups like the Heritage Foundation, the American Council on Foreign Relations, Brookings, etc. When I put numbers on a world outline map at the beginning of last term (yes 2007!), half the class missed Iraq, 80% Afghanistan and one benighted soul identified India as Italy and Venezuela as Vietnam. (I guess getting the first letter right is a beginning!)
There she is: Miss America!