Monthly Archives: September 2007

IT IS EASIER TO DISPROVE THAN TO PROVE.

Posted on September 30, 2007 by Philip

IT IS EASIER TO DISPROVE THAN TO PROVE. The “Black Swan” figure of speech comes from a famous example which is used to illustrate inference. Take the proposition: “All swans are white.” Any number of white swans won’t prove the … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, History | 1 Comment

HOW TO NEED A THREE AND A HALF BILLION DOLLAR RESCUE.

Posted on September 29, 2007 by Philip

HOW TO NEED A THREE AND A HALF BILLION DOLLAR RESCUE. Taleb regards what happened to Long Term Capital Management in 1998 as a vindication of his views on risk. The principals of Long Term Capital Management included winners of … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, History | Leave a comment

TWO WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT SHAKESPEARE AS A BLACK SWAN (COMMENT).

Posted on September 28, 2007 by Philip

TWO WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT SHAKESPEARE AS A BLACK SWAN (COMMENT). Nick commented here that even if Shakespeare was a one in a billion occurrence, there have been more than a billion people in human history so that the a … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Literature, Shakespeare | Leave a comment

BLACK SWANS ARE MORE COMMON THAN WE THINK.

Posted on September 27, 2007 by Philip

BLACK SWANS ARE MORE COMMON THAN WE THINK. In THE BLACK SWAN, Taleb’s main contention is that we greatly underestimate both the probability of outliers and their consequences. He rejects the applicability of the “normal” bell curve outside of gambling … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, History | 1 Comment

DOUGLAS MACARTHUR’S RETURN TO CHICAGO.

Posted on September 26, 2007 by Philip

DOUGLAS MACARTHUR’S RETURN TO CHICAGO. David Halberstam’s last book, THE COLDEST WINTER, is about the Korean War and adds to his vivid portrayal of the last half of the twentieth century. This review by Peter Kann describes the bitter divisions … Continue reading →

Posted in History | 3 Comments

WEIGHT-BEARING WALLS.

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Philip

WEIGHT-BEARING WALLS. Today’s Wall Street Journal has an article by Catesby Leigh on Princeton’s new Whitman College, which will be dedicated Thursday. I had noticed below the suggestion that Harvard should preserve its brand by keeping Georgian style for its … Continue reading →

Posted in Architecture | 2 Comments

BEAVERS AND REGULATIONS.

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Philip

BEAVERS AND REGULATIONS. This seems to relate to the post below on the encroachment of regulations on architects and builders. The incident is confirmed by Snopes. Thanks to Howard Johnson for calling this to my attention.

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IS HARVARD’S ARCHITECTURE IN DECLINE?

Posted on September 25, 2007 by Philip

IS HARVARD’S ARCHITECTURE IN DECLINE? This article in Harvard Magazine thinks that it is. The article laments the inability of Harvard to build new designs by Renzo Piano and Hans Hollein and describes the obstacles that are presented by neighborhood … Continue reading →

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LOOKING AT WHERE WRITERS WRITE.

Posted on September 24, 2007 by Philip

LOOKING AT WHERE WRITERS WRITE. I can hazard some generalizations about the work places of the writers in the study I linked to yesterday. The most obvious one is that they could all answer the question (where do you write?). … Continue reading →

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WHERE WRITERS WRITE.

Posted on September 23, 2007 by Philip

WHERE WRITERS WRITE. I remember seeing a complaint by a writer that the questions people asked him were usually directed at how he wrote and where–did he use a typewriter or a pencil? I think people ask this kind of … Continue reading →

Posted in Architecture, Literature | 1 Comment