Monthly Archives: February 2007

LEFT HANDED CATCHERS?

LEFT HANDED CATCHERS? Sharon Begley, who consistently has very interesting and understandable articles on science in the Wall Street Journal, has an article today (February 16) on multiple regression research on baseball by J.C. Bradbury. He confirms, as others have … Continue reading

Posted in Baseball, Sports | 1 Comment

SIGNS OF SPRING.

SIGNS OF SPRING. Pitchers and catchers report today.

Posted in Baseball, Sports | 2 Comments

THE OPTIMAL RATE OF DEFAULT.

THE OPTIMAL RATE OF DEFAULT. Years ago, a friend and I used to joke about what would be the optimum period of years between defaults for a sovereign nation. That is, we assumed that a country would adopt a policy … Continue reading

Posted in Economics | 2 Comments

VALENTINE POEM.

VALENTINE POEM. A poem for Valentine’s Day: “Wedding-Wind.” By Philip Larkin, an unhappy man and lifelong bachelor. Wedding Wind Philip Larkin The wind blew all my wedding-day, And my wedding-night was the night of the high wind; And a stable … Continue reading

Posted in Literature, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

A NOTE ON EARMARKS.

A NOTE ON EARMARKS. I got a chance to ask a friend who’s a career federal civil servant about earmarks. He told me that earmarks are frequently obscure even for the agency spending the money. The earmarks arrive in a … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

BETTER TO INHERIT THAN TO EARN?

BETTER TO INHERIT THAN TO EARN? Edmund Phelps, winner of Nobel Prize in economics, has an article in today’s Wall St. Journal arguing that European economies lag the American economy because of a lack of “dynamism—loosely, the rate of commercially … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Literature | 2 Comments

A BIG STEP FORWARD IN USING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS.

A BIG STEP FORWARD IN USING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS. This article by Daniel Engber describes how probabilities are being used to convey information in a new report on an important policy issue. A previous report had used words such … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Politics, Science | 1 Comment

PEOPLE ARE ALREADY USED TO PROBABILITIES.

PEOPLE ARE ALREADY USED TO PROBABILITIES. I once had the good fortune to hear James Surowiecki speak about his book, THE WISDOM OF CROWDS. I asked him whether he thought it was possible that probabilistic statements could be used in … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Politics, Science | 5 Comments

AN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BUSINESS PLAN.

AN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BUSINESS PLAN. Jackie Wullschlager, the writer on art who may be the best thing about the Financial Times, points out today that the father of the eighteenth century artist William Hogarth ended in a debtor’s prison when … Continue reading

Posted in Economics | 1 Comment

USING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS.

USING THE WISDOM OF CROWDS. I am a big fan of James Surowiecki’s book, THE WISDOM OF CROWDS. This is the book that used the examples of estimating the weight of a watermelon at a county fair or guessing the … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Politics, Science | 6 Comments