http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/ Theories, observations, and articles Fri, 18 May 2012 17:04:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-8555 USING PROBABILITIES IN INTELLIGENCE—FINDING BIN LADEN. | Pater Familias Mon, 09 May 2011 16:51:35 +0000 http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/#comment-8555 [...] PROBABILITIES IN INTELLIGENCE—FINDING BIN LADEN. I posted here three years ago arguing for using probabilities more in evaluating foreign intelligence decisions. [...] [...] PROBABILITIES IN INTELLIGENCE—FINDING BIN LADEN. I posted here three years ago arguing for using probabilities more in evaluating foreign intelligence decisions. [...]

]]> http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-2461 RATING AGENCIES SHOULD USE PROBABILITIES. | Pater Familias Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:09:23 +0000 http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/#comment-2461 [...] AGENCIES SHOULD USE PROBABILITIES. I posted here that intelligence estimates by the CIA should be expressed in terms of probabilities just as [...] [...] AGENCIES SHOULD USE PROBABILITIES. I posted here that intelligence estimates by the CIA should be expressed in terms of probabilities just as [...]

]]> http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-1561 THE INFLUENCE OF PHILOSOPHERS. | Pater Familias Mon, 04 Aug 2008 02:25:20 +0000 http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/#comment-1561 [...] that I considered common sense or received wisdom had originated with the Enlightenment. I argued here that public policy could and should be debated in terms of the probabilities the speakers attached [...] [...] that I considered common sense or received wisdom had originated with the Enlightenment. I argued here that public policy could and should be debated in terms of the probabilities the speakers attached [...]

]]> http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-867 Pater Familias » DISCUSSING RECESSION IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES. Wed, 23 Jan 2008 23:09:30 +0000 http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/#comment-867 [...] RECESSION IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES. About a year ago, I argued here that it would be useful to use probabilities to discuss foreign intelligence, just as we have over [...] [...] RECESSION IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES. About a year ago, I argued here that it would be useful to use probabilities to discuss foreign intelligence, just as we have over [...]

]]> http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-792 Pater Familias » ARE EXPERTS NO GOOD? (COMMENT) Mon, 24 Dec 2007 22:28:02 +0000 http://philipschaefer.com/2007/02/10/people-are-already-used-to-probabilities/#comment-792 [...] their reputational bets.’” I argued for greater use of probabilities in discussing policies here and [...] [...] their reputational bets.’” I argued for greater use of probabilities in discussing policies here and [...]

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